04/10/2015
- Lucas Matthysse (37-3, 34KOs) faces off against Viktor Postol (27-0, 11KOs) in a really intriguing clash of styles. Matthysse is a very heavy handed come forward brawler where Viktor Postol is a very versatile, technically sound boxer.
- The bookies have made Postol a big underdog in this bout but in my opinion this is a real 50/50 bout. Matthysse has a far superior resume in comparison to Postol which is why he is the heavy favorite, but Postol has been improving in every bout I have seen of him and he does sport good wins against DeMarcus Corley, Hank Lundy and Selcuk Aydin.
- Styles make fights and in my opinion Postol is all wrong for Matthysse. Matthysse is comfortable fighting at mid-range and when he can plant his feet, but against Zab Judah, Deavon Alexander and Danny Garcia (his three loses) each of them stood off him and chose to counter punch from distance which really nullified his offense. Provodnikov also had success against Matthysse at close range, he smothered Matthysse and restricted him from getting good leverage on his power punches. Postol can fight at all ranges which is key to victory in this bout.
- At close range Postol is very effective, he has a very tight defense and he has the ability to throw short, sharp uppercuts and hooks. At mid-range Postol is an effective counter puncher, he has good body movement and will be capable of frustrating Matthysse in a position that he should be comfortable at.
- At long range it's all Postol, he has a 5 inch height advantage and although his reach is unlisted I'd estimate he will have at least a 4 inch advantage which he uses very well through his excellent jab. If he keeps Matthysse at range for the majority of the fight it could be a very easy nights work.
- Postol also utilizes his good foot movement to put intelligent pressure on his opponents and he won't give Matthysse a moments rest as he also has a high punch output. I think if Postol wears Matthysse down for the first half of the bout by fighting at distance and making Matthysse miss we may see the many wars he has been through coming back to bite him where the fresher Postol will be hungry and unrelenting.
- Now of course it would be silly to write off a guy like Matthysse who can end a fight in one punch, many people probably feel he will do what he did to Lamont Peterson (arguably his most impressive performance) who is a slick fighter and was expected to give Matthysse serious problems. Matthysse stopped him in 3 rounds but there was many other factors which played a key role in this fight.
- Firstly Peterson missed weight and as a result wasn't eligible to win the title so he may have been under motivated. Secondly Peterson lost his cool as soon as Matthysse dropped him, Peterson reverted to trying to fight fire with fire which was only ever going to end in a Matthysse KO win.
- Now Postol is a very calculated guy (nicknamed The Ice Man), he won't go all in if he ships a few big punches early on. He also proved against Selcuk Aydin that he can take a punch, when he was knocked back against the ropes with a heavy right hand, he shook it off and got right back down to business as if nothing happened.
- Coming off the back of a war with Provodnikov it may well have taken its toll on the 33 year old Matthysse, he may also find it hard to try and adapt his game for such a tricky style like Postol.
- Postol is also being trained by legendary trainer Freddie Roach who recently called Postol his favorite fighter in his gym which is very high praise considering the likes of Pacquiao and Provodnikov are also under his tutelage.
- This has all the makings of being a really, really close fight but I just feel Postol is the more versatile of the two. Average odds on Postol are around 2.88 (still value in that) so the 3.75 with Marathon is value on top of value.