09/09/2015
- Former WBA Super Middleweight titlist Austin Trout (29-2, 16KOs) continues his march towards another title fight when he takes on a C level opponent in Joey Hernandez (24-3-1, 14KOs) in the inaugural Toe-to-Toe Tuesday fight in America.
- At the age of 29 Trout has an abundance of experience. He beat the future Hall of Famer, Miguel Cotto convincingly, he lost a controversial bout with Canelo Alvarez (many saw Trout winning) and he was well and truly schooled by the Cuban slickster, Erislandy Lara. Trout has mixed it with the elite in the division which really cannot be said for Hernandez. In his two biggest bouts against the 40+ Bundrage and the up and coming prospect Julian Williams he hardly won a round.
- After his loss to Canelo, Trout made the conscious effort to move away from being a boxer to more of a come forward fighter whilst maintaining his defensive qualities. By becoming a more exciting fighter he hoped to get more of a following while also making sure he could never be robbed again in the future. In his bout with Lara this didn't work, Lara simply had too much skill. In his next bout with Daniel Dawson, after a nine month hiatus, Trout was dropped twice and dropped Dawson once en route to a unanimous decision. In his next two bouts he won both by 7th round stoppages.
- This new style has seen Trout utilise good pressure, he has good footwork and can cut the ring off effectively. Trout has also began sitting down on his punches more.
- At the weigh in Hernandez had to strip bare to make the 156 pounds catchweight. He also looked very pale and I suspect he was struggling to make the weight right up until the last minute. Had he missed weight he would have had to pay fees to the sanctioning body and to Trout. From pictures and tweets I have seen on news articles Hernandez is only motivated by money so he probably wouldn't have minded putting his body at risk to save some cash.
- Trout is predominantly a defensive fighter. I expect him to be cagey in the opening few rounds, using his jab to get the measure of his opponent. I expect that once Trout has seen the numerous chinks in the Hernandez armour he will look to exploit them.
- Hernandez is short and squat, his reach is unlisted but I predict Trout has a 3 to 4 inch advantage in this department from the videos I have seen. Hernandez fights in bursts which will favor the longer Trout, he should have no problem landing as Hernandez comes in to range in attempt to get his own shots off. Hernandez also throws very lethargic, looping/wide hooks and over hands, Trouts excellent hand speed and accuracy means he should be able to get clean shots in all night.
- All 16 of Trout's stoppages have come under 9.5 rounds. Hernandez was also starched in two rounds against Ed Paredes who is no world beater himself.
- This seems to be a strategically matched opponent for Trout. He probably feels he can go one better than Julian Williams and Bundrage and stop Hernandez. The gulf in class should be too much for Hernandez to live with. I still rank Trout as a top five Super Welterweight where Hernandez isn't even a top 50.
- I recommend half stakes on this.