Two undefeated heavyweights accepted the challenge to face one another and that should always be commended. The winner has a compelling argument to call themselves the best in the division. On december 1st, we should be in for a real treat as WBC champion, Deontay Wilder, and ‘lineal champion’ Tyson Fury, go at it.
When odds were originally released and I saw Wilder was a slight favourite at 1.8 I thought that offered decent value. At the time of writing, Wilder is now a larger favourite at odds of around 1.6. Without any deep research my gut reaction to the fight was that Wilder hits too hard and has been too active for Fury. I've done a 180 in the past week.
When people say wilder hits extremely hard, the specifics are that he has an extremely hard right hand. If he can't land that shot he can look a little lost. It's easy to pick holes in any boxer's record, but Wilder really has only fought one world class fighter. His last fight, against Luis Ortiz, was his biggest win and toughest fight to date. The official scores at the time of the stoppage were 86-85 across the board for Wilder. I had Ortiz up by a couple. Wilder had to suck it up big time in the 7th round and was almost out on his feet. The bell very much saved him. Anyone can be hurt at heavyweight, but he was also being out boxed for large parts of the fight prior to the crisis. I noted how flat footed Ortiz was. He doesn't move very well. Fury moves very well. Of course, as old man Ortiz tired a tad Wilder pounced in the 10th and got the stoppage. He's a devastating finisher, of that there is no debate.
Wilder likes to fight at range so that he can unleash his right hand. He tries to hypnotise opponents with a pawing jab at times, but can also throw it with authority. He doesn't have much of an inside game, so don't be surprised if Fury opts to do the unthinkable and go at Wilder, backing him up to remove his best weapon, leaning on him with 250lbs of weight to sap his energy.
It's very difficult to land a flush shot on Fury. If Wilder throws some rights that miss, he may become gun shy, especially if he’s made to pay for those mistakes. It's not often he's come up against a guy as tall as he, or in this case taller. He prefers a shorter, stationary target. Who wouldn't? Fury has a great gas tank and can dance all night. His three years out prior to his two easy come back fights, coupled with his substance abuse and diet, could come into play or it might be a non issue. I'm going to assume Fury is in the shape of his life.
Ever since Steve Cunningham put Fury on the seat of his pants I've heard how Fury has chin issues. If Cunningham can drop him hard, Wilder will surely put a hole through his head, right? Well, it doesn't quite work like that. First off, I don't think Fury saw that shot coming. It’s worth noting that he never once looked troubled by Klitschko. He’ll keep a keen eye on the right hand, ensuring he's no easy target at any point. Will Wilder win a battle of the jabs if it gets down to a chess match? I don't believe so. He's been wound up so mercilessly in the pre fight build up, he's gunning for a ko. He's also bragged about how he's the killer in the heavyweight division. He has a reputation to live up to and doesn't want to win a points decision. This leaves me to believe that a knock out is the only way Wilder can win. If that happens then I can live with it.
It could be argued that Wilder has the more fragile chin of the two fighters. As previously mentioned, Ortiz had him in all sorts of trouble. He was also rocked badly by Molina and stopped in the amateurs. Fury isn’t known to carry much power, but such a big unit has to be respected.
Fury has the belief and the heart to match any man. He also wants to show everyone that you can come back from battles with depression and substance abuse if you believe. He's fighting for more than just himself.
It's going to be a great fight, could play out in many different ways and all things considered could be categorised as a 50/50 contest. The fact we can get 2.55 odds is ideal. Odds have already dropped from 2.65 so it's time to pull the trigger. Bet365 have Fury as a much closer 2.3 dog